Letter: Why This Election Just Could Be a Five-Horse Race in Guildford

Published on: 6 Dec, 2019
Updated on: 7 Dec, 2019

From: James Walsh

Labour borough councillor for Stoke

As a tactical voter, are you going to vote Liberal Democrat instead of Labour to keep the Conservatives out in Guildford?

Or will you vote for Anne Milton to gain a similar result but without switching allegiances entirely? Or perhaps you will vote Labour to give us a chance in a five-way election where there are no certainties and plenty of variables?

I’ve generally seen this election as a two-horse race but, as it drags on, we can clearly see no-one has a decisive advantage and this could well be a four-or even five-horse race.

Ribbing activists in the other parties has been fun, but no-one really knows at this stage how the vote will pan out in Guildford. Labour’s Anne Rouse would make an excellent MP and that is why there has been no “deal” with other parties here.

What has been clear on the doorstep is that voters are sick of politics, sick of politicians and sick of the volume of literature being pumped through their letter-boxes. This has been a trend since at least the expenses scandal of 2008 and has worsened with the economic crash, austerity, Brexit and a decade of infighting within all the main parties.

But despite that, excellent candidates are still coming forward and deserve to be heard.

I can only speak for Labour in Guildford and I have been invigorated by how well our candidate Anne Rouse is doing. We may be having a tricky conversation on the doorstep, for example, and Anne will join in and turn it around with her charm, knowledge, common sense and empathy.

Being able to have a meaningful conversation with a voter is essential in a great candidate, as is an ability to emphasise and understand their concerns. Many times I have seen Anne leave a doorstep mulling over what she has heard and desperate to be able to help the person she has just met.

That is the kind of MP I want for Guildford. And, just maybe, it could happen in this strange, strange election.

So, if you’re thinking about voting tactically or just doing something different on December 12, consider, there might be a few more horses on the field than you thought after all. I’d urge you to lay a few bob on the one with the red livery in particular…

Responses to Letter: Why This Election Just Could Be a Five-Horse Race in Guildford

George Potter Reply

December 6, 2019 at 8:03 am

It’s already pretty ludicrous to describe Guildford as a four-horse race when the most recent poll shows the Conservatives on 44% and the Lib Dems on 39% (just a 2.5% swing apart) with all other parties at least 30 points behind the front-runners.

But to describe it as a five-horse race really is quite spectacular. Is James Walsh really suggesting that even the Peace Party are in with a serious shot of winning Guildford?

George Potter is a Lib Dem borough councillor for Burpham
James Walsh Reply

December 6, 2019 at 11:38 am

I would say to George Potter, you just never know.

People tell fibs to pollsters, many are fed up with the same-old, many more will sadly stay at home on Thursday, wrap their presents up and stick on their “Live and Let Die” DVDs.

And stranger things have happened – not least of which was a Lib Dem/Tory coalition in 2010.

And no-one predicted that. 😉

James Walsh is a Labour borough councillor for Stoke.
Brian Creese Reply

December 6, 2019 at 12:03 pm

Knocking on doors, even in these bitterly cold conditions, does give you insights.

First, so many people really haven’t decided how to vote and are genuinely conflicted.

Second, it is a rare thing to find a committed Lib Dem. Most are Labour supporters being duped by the Lib Dem “winning here” nonsense.

Third, I hear more support for Anne Milton than for the Tory candidate.

My conclusion is that any polls you read are wrong and that there is everything to play for. And if Labour supporters were to vote for Anne Rouse a historic Labour win is more than possible.

Brian Creese is the Vice-Chair of Guildford Labour
Sue Hackman Reply

December 6, 2019 at 12:06 pm

Only a few weeks ago, the Lib Dems rejected a coalition to oust the Tories, fronted as it should be by the Leader of the Opposition. They put their faith in a fantasy overall victory for the Lib Dems which would ditch the last referendum. It’s not going to happen.

The Labour Party has promised a referendum to Remain or accept an improved deal and this is the very last chance for those wishing to stay in the EU. For those who want that outcome, only the Labour Party can deliver it.

Voters need to be big enough to vote for the government they believe in so that politicians know what that is and focus on big issues, not the short-term vote-swingers. Over 50 years of electioneering, I’ve never known the Liberals/Lib Dems not to call for tactical voting to make up their numbers. Don’t encourage them. Tactical voting sends the wrong messages to politicians and the wrong politicians to Westminster.

Playing games with democracy makes people cynical about it. Who knows the true state of public opinion when so many feel they have to vote tactically? The truth is, every tactical vote keeps the gap between the main parties and the rest artificially high. Nowhere is this better illustrated than Guildford. Every election, people buy the routine pleas to vote tactically, to hijack sincere votes. Despite the doctored graphs in their literature, there were in 2017 only around 2,800 votes between Lib Dems and Labour.

And finally, despite George Potter’s sideways swipe at the Peace Party candidate, may I commend the honourable and honest electioneering of the Peace Party candidate? I don’t believe that Independents can promise the budgets to deliver their policies (only the big parties can do that), but it’s refreshing to see honest, sincere campaigning on a small budget. Pity the Greens dropped out, but please see our policies before you place your cross.
Johan Ingles - Le Nobel Reply

December 6, 2019 at 12:35 pm

Interesting new choices in Guildford but would say more probably a two- or three-horse race, with enthusiastic ponies and a mule bringing up the rear. But we’re in new territory with the candidates there are, so always dangerous to predict.
John Lomas Reply

December 6, 2019 at 12:39 pm

I always lie to pollsters, whether political or commercial.

I used to use a long-distance, back roads, route to a SW coastal resort saving hours on the main road route. Then one year there was a traffic survey doing the (“Where have you come from and Where are you going?”) type of survey. The next year the route was signed as a holiday route and subsequently subject to the jams I had previously avoided.

I have also told canvassers from all my candidates that they have my vote.
Gary Jackson Reply

December 6, 2019 at 2:51 pm

I have seen no canvassing in the GU3 area. And since none can be bothered, I will not even vote. Presumably, they are too scared to face the music.
John Morris Reply

December 8, 2019 at 5:11 pm

The Peace Party is small (but perfectly formed!). Apologies if a leaflet hasn’t dropped through your letterbox or you have failed to meet me at a hustings or out and about in Guildford or Cranleigh. Please take a few minutes to watch the interview with me recorded by a second-year journalism student at the University for Creative Arts: https://guildford-dragon.com/2019/12/08/uos-interview-john-morris-peace-party/