Damaged Tory Stronghold Surrey Faces Shaky Future In December General Election

Published on: 1 Nov, 2019
Updated on: 1 Nov, 2019

By Rebecca Curley

local democracy reporter

Since 2005, Surrey has been a Conservative stronghold at borough, county and all 11 parliamentary constituencies. That is, until the local elections in May this year and then in September, when three of the county’s MPs were stripped of the Tory whip.

That stronghold, heavily damaged in May, faces even more danger when voters go to the polls in the General Election on December 12. Already, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said the party is prepared to lose Guildford as part of the price of Brexit.

Solid Blue Tory – Surrey’s Parliamentary seats as they have been since 2005 – Image Wikipedia

Now, MPs Philip Hammond, in Runnymede and Weybridge, and Anne Milton, in Guildford, sit as Independents, and Sam Gyimah is a Liberal Democrat in East Surrey. He intends to stand in Kensington so there will certainly be a new MP in East Surrey.

In May, the Conservative Party’s Surrey chairman, Julian Ellacott, admitted they had suffered the biggest political loss in generations.

Controversial issues, besides Brexit, such as housing and the Green Belt were listed as factors that caused the Tories to lose their ruling majority in six boroughs and districts. The party lost 117 seats in Surrey, in a total of 1,300 lost nationally.

In the Surrey County Council May by-election, an alliance of parties in Haslemere allowed Independent Nikki Barton to win victory from the Tories.

Independents and Residents’ Associations also did well in Epsom and Ewell, Elmbridge and Waverley.

The Lib Dems did the best they have done in years, gaining 54 seats, then taking Mole Valley and eventually, through leadership votes, the ruling administration in Guildford.

So what can we expect this December?

Here are five key Surrey seats to watch.

1: Guildford (see also: Will Anne Milton Stand as an Independent in a Close-Run General Election?)

Anne Milton

Present MP: Anne Milton – Independent (54.6% of votes in 2017 as Conservative)

Ms Milton was among the 21 Conservative MPs expelled for voting to support the backbench bill seeking to block a no-deal Brexit in September. The party reinstated the whip to 10 of the MPs after the vote for a December 12 election was won on Tuesday, but Ms Milton was not among those.

Hot on her heels is Zoe Franklin for the Liberal Democrats, who came second in 2017 with 23.9% of the vote just ahead of Howard Smith for Labour. The Lib Dems did well in the May 2019 borough elections with Tories losing control for the first time since 2003.

The Conservatives lost 22 of their 31 councillors including the deputy leader and mayor. Newly formed party Residents for Guildford and Villages exceeded its expectations by unseating 12 Conservatives and securing 15 seats in total. But the Lib Dems emerged as the largest party, gaining nine seats and ending with 17 councillors. Could this happen at national level?

2: South West Surrey

Jeremy Hunt

Present MP: Jeremy Hunt – Conservative (55.7% of votes in 2017)

There was a huge upset in May when Farnham Residents increased their majority from six to 15 and the Liberal Democrats jumped from one to 14 members.

The Lib Dems have already announced Paul Follows as their candidate. He is deputy leader of Waverley Borough Council and leader of Godalming Town Council. In the Surrey County Council by-election for Haslemere, the Lib Dems backed Independent candidate Nikki Barton, along with other opposition parties, which must have helped her victory. Could a similar alliance topple Mr Hunt?

In 2017, he won the majority of votes with 33,683, ahead of Louise Irvine from the National Health Action Party who recorded 12,093. Lib Dems came fourth behind Labour. With the upset at the local elections for the borough Tories, this will be interesting.

3: Mole Valley

Sir Paul Beresford

Present MP: Sir Paul Beresford – Conservative (61.9% of votes in 2017)

Sir Paul has been the MP for Mole Valley since 1997 but the Lib Dems had a gigantic boost in May when they took control of Mole Valley District Council, with 21 of the 41 seats. The Tories lost nine, eight to the Lib Dems.

Will this success be replicated in December? If Sir Paul stands again, which he looks set to do after voting for the December date this week, he will be up against former Tory councillor Oliver Chappell, now a member of the Brexit Party, Green Party member Lisa Scott and former opponent, Lib Dem Paul Kennedy.

Sir Paul won the 2017 General Election with 35,092 votes, Mr Kennedy recorded 10,955. Will that majority hold?

4: Runnymede and Weybridge

Philip Hammond

Present MP: Philip Hammond – Independent (60.9% of votes in 2017 as Conservative)

Like Ms Milton, Mr Hammond was among the 21 stripped of the Tory whip in September. And, like Ms Milton, he was not one of those reinstated on Tuesday. So the question remains, will he stand again as an independent? And if so, how much of his huge majority has been down to the individual and not the party? He voted against the December General Election in the House of Commons on Tuesday. Could this reflect his position on whether to stand again? We wait to see.

5: East Surrey

Sam Gyimah

Present MP: Sam Gyimah – Liberal Democrats (59.6% of votes in 2017 as Conservative)

Mr Gyimah caused upset when he quit the Tories and defected to the Lib Dems. Like Ms Milton and Mr Hammond he was among the 21 but defected to the Lib Dems. He intends to stand in Kensington, now occupied by Labour. In 2017, he won East Surrey with 35,310 votes, and Labour secured 11,396.

With such a huge majority, can the Conservatives keep hold of their supporters? Tandridge’s Tory leader was defeated in May, citing Brexit, housing and Green Belt policy as major doorstep talking-points with residents. Have voters had enough?

Surrey’s 11 present MPs:

Sir Paul Beresford – Mole Valley

Crispin Blunt – Reigate

Michael Gove – Surrey Heath

Chris Grayling – Epsom and Ewell

Sam Gyimah – East Surrey

Philip Hammond – Runnymede and Weybridge

Jeremy Hunt – South-west Surrey

Kwasi Kwarteng – Spelthorne

Jonathan Lord – Woking

Anne Milton – Guildford

Dominic Raab – Esher and Walton

Share This Post