Letter: Polls are Polls – Elections are Elections

Published on: 8 Apr, 2024
Updated on: 7 Apr, 2024

From: Brian Creese

Labour Party Activist

In response to: Poll Predicts General Election Lib Dem Wins in Guildford, Godalming & Ash and Woking

Polls are polls: elections are elections.

In the Labour Party we enjoy a great poll like this for 30 seconds – then forget about it and get back to the work of winning the General Election.

If the Lib Dems were a sensible party with real policies and aspirations, so would they. But we all know that Lib Dem success depends on persuading people who don’t support them that they ‘should’ vote for them because ‘only they can win here’.

They have also chosen their poll well, as it makes assumptions on tactical voting that favour them. My own favourite poll, which uses a similar metric, is Survation x Lodestone MRP (https://lodestonecommunications.com/election-hub).

If you select results for Guildford you get a lovely graph with Labour 1 per cent ahead of the Tories who are 2 per cent above the Lib Dems. Why does this poll which uses an almost identical methodology look so different? Because it puts less weight on tactical voting.

So we can play a game of who has the best poll results but it really is just a game. We have a real election to win, and every Labour supporter in Guildford is determined to do everything they can to ensure a Labour victory in Guildford in that election.