The Dragon Says: Who’d Be a Guildford Voter Facing Such An Unpredictable Future?

Published on: 7 Apr, 2019
Updated on: 9 Apr, 2019

Most folk in Guildford shouldn’t bother continuing to read this right now because, if past practices are anything to go by, most of us also won’t bother to vote in the May 2 council election, even though the future of our borough hangs in the balance.

But for those aware of possible impending dangers and intending to exercise their democratic duty the bad news is that the choices are far from straightforward.

Like it or not, local elections, for many, have become a large-scale opinion poll on the popularity of political parties at a national level. That’s one effect of having party political labels at the local level.

But this time round, we in Guildford face an added ingredient, the Local Plan which the council leadership is hoping GBC will adopt, somewhat controversially, just a week before the election. Under the plan, the borough would undergo unprecedented growth, between 11,000 and 14,000 extra homes over 15 years and that means, of course, extra people, extra cars, more congestion, more danger from toxic air quality.

Dividing potential voters into roughly three main groups, “My party right or wrong”, “I’m voting on Brexit” and “I’m voting on the Local Plan”, how might each face their electoral choices?

Clearly, for the faithful “Right or wrong” brigade there is no real choice, they will stick with the party, no matter what. Good news for the established parties, bad news for the GGG, Residents for Guildford and Villages and all smaller parties. But because of Brexit many Tories are very unhappy with their party these days. Other Tories might be unhappy with their party’s movement away from green-belt protectionism.

So, even some normally staunch Tory supporters might protest with a vote for a smaller party, already populated to a significant extent with disillusioned former Tories or, if they are keen Remainers, even vote Lib Dem, the usual home for anti-Tory protest votes in Guildford.

The staunch Lib Dem or Labour supporters are probably less affected and unless they are at complete odds with their party’s view on either Brexit or the Local Plan they will probably remain loyal.

The “I’m voting on Brexit” section could actually be the largest group. Traditional Tory-supporting voters who are against Brexit might be tempted by the Lib Dems, the only major party with a clear exit-from-Brexit policy. Conservatives hoping for a “harder” Brexit, and there seem to be plenty of those in its membership (a different thing to its much larger group supporters), have no UKIP choice so they can either stay away, spoil their paper or resign themselves to voting only on local issues.

If so, they will join the “I’m voting on the Local Plan” followers, a group likely to be more prevalent in the village wards. The stand-out issue for these voters is the Local Plan. An unusually high number of comments, 80,000, were made during the public consultations, most of them objecting.

As the council leader, Paul Spooner, said when interviewed by The Guildford Dragon NEWS, the mandate for the plan has not come from the local electorate but from central Conservative government with whom the council leadership has happily collaborated.

But despite all this, reports from doorstep canvassers in the town centre show most residents are still unaware of the Local Plan and its consequences, something the Conservatives might need to bank on. The Independents and the GGG will hope this is where they can drum up support, although they will swiftly need to inform voters of the issues before they can even begin to persuade them which way to vote.

There will be another factor at play. For some, the present Brexit debacle is just another example of how broken is our entire political system and our democracy. For them, if they can be bothered, a vote for the smaller parties might be another way of registering their disapproval.

Of course, there are other reasons that determine voter choice. Some might know certain councillors and be loyal because that councillor has helped them with issues or because they feel they are good people, good representatives, regardless of political labels. Some might have a bee in their bonnet about particular issues, rubbish collection, the environment or even potholes (which are not even a borough council issue).

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