The Election Vote in Guildford is Not Just Split, It’s Splintered

Published on: 5 Nov, 2019
Updated on: 7 Nov, 2019

Former Tory MP Anne Milton’s announcement today (November 5)  that she will stand as an Independent means Guildford’s parliamentary seat is up for grabs in the December 12 General Election.

The turnaround is remarkable. With Ms Milton’s 2005 defeat of the Lib Dems, who had held the seat only since 2001, Guildford had become once again a Tory stronghold with more than 50% of voters regularly supporting the Conservatives.

But Brexit and the consequent expulsion of Ms Milton has thrown all the chips into the air.

How and where they will land is impossible to predict. With no party machine to support her campaign, she faces an uphill struggle but, even if she fails, the number of votes she attracts could still have a critical effect on the result.

Some Remainers, otherwise leaning towards the Lib Dems, may decide to support her. Others who might have reluctantly stayed with the Conservatives could do likewise. And Conservative support is also likely to be squeezed by the Brexit Party if, as expected, they confirm they will stand in accordance with pronouncement of their leader, Nigel Farage.

The Labour vote could also suffer a squeeze. Their party’s less definite Brexit policy could make them less attractive to those voting mainly on Brexit and to tactical anti-Tory voters more likely to vote Lib Dem.

The winning candidate might require only about 35% of the vote, perhaps even less, if the turnout is in the usual early 70s percentage. But this being the first winter General Election since 1923, that figure could well be reduced by travel difficulties to polling stations by older and disabled constituents in icy or snowy conditions.

Bob Hughes

The Dragon understands the Conservative and Labour candidates will be revealed on Friday. We believe Guildford Conservative Association is to select their candidate on Thursday evening from a short-list of three but their CVs will not be made available until the meeting.

The association chairman, Bob Hughes, who campaigned for Remain in 2016 and has long been an ally of Ms Milton, is not going to preside over the meeting. He will be overseas.

Cllr Julie Iles

Rumours that Julie Iles, the Conservative county councillor for The Horsleys, who works in Conservative central office, will be on the short-list remain unconfirmed, but she would have the advantage of being almost local. Although she lives in Guildford borough, her home is just across the constituency boundary in the Mole Valley.

Angela Richardson, who was the deputy chairman (political) at GCA, has also been rumoured to be a possible candidate. When asked to confirm she said: “While I am an approved candidate on the Conservative Parliamentary List, as far as I know, the shortlist has not yet been advertised to potential candidates.”

Meanwhile, former Labour candidate Howard Smith extracted confirmation on Twitter from former Conservative borough councillor Matt Furniss that he is not throwing his hat into the ring to be the Conservative Parliamentary candidate.

To Mr Howard’s question: “Has Matt Furniss been selected yet?” Mr Furniss replied: “Nice of you to think of me Howard but I’m not standing for MP.” One Conservative Party source told The Dragon that it is rumoured Mr Furniss is no longer even on the list of approved potential candidates.

Green Party candidate Mark Bray-Parry said: “Anne Milton has been a strong local MP. I am unsurprised to hear she intends to stand after falling foul of a Tory party that has lost its “one nation” facade. Guildford no longer looks like a one-, or even a two-party race.

Mark Bray-Parry

“But despite this election being presented as a Brexit referendum, we face a starker choice. We cannot accept another five years of inaction on climate change. If we do, our negligence towards the environment will have the gravest of consequences, and Brexit or not, it will be too late for us to do anything about it.”

News is still awaited whether a local pro-Remain pact between the Lib Dems and the Green Party can be negotiated.

Brian Creese

For Guildford Labour, spokesman Brian Creese added: “Guildford Labour Party believe it is important that every view is represented in this election, probably the most important election for a generation. We therefore welcome Anne Milton’s decision to represent her wing of the Conservative Party, after being summarily dismissed for her views on Brexit.

“The new Conservative Party under Boris Johnson has shown itself to be high-handed, uncompromising and extremely right-wing, while Labour will offer an exciting programme of change and give the people the final say over Brexit.
“With the Greens, Lib Dems and the Brexit Party all standing, at least the people of Guildford will have a real choice before them on December 12. We look forward to a clean contest.”

John Morris

John Morris, the veteran Peace Party candidate, said: “The Peace Party welcomes the participation of all members of the community in our democratic processes.

“A person putting themselves forward as an Independent gives the electorate no idea where she, or he, stands on all issues of concern.  Membership of a political party, on the other hand, does indicate to a voter roughly where a candidate is on those issues.”

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