Letter: Brexit Means the Council Should Review Housing Numbers

Published on: 27 Jun, 2016
Updated on: 27 Jun, 2016

From Colin Cross

Lib Dem borough councillor for Lovelace

The Brexit result must mean Guildford Borough Council revisiting their Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) numbers as they are now invalid.

The UK’s exit from the EU will swiftly take us into a serious recession, together with a likely breakup of the UK itself and possibly the same for the EU, in the fullness of time.

If GBC contemplate going forward as if nothing has really changed it would show they are in denial?

The clue is that UK house builders and property companies fell 20% on Friday and are predicted to contract in the post-exit world we must all consider.

The pound is down, we could have deflation, while taxation and poverty are on the increase. This is the “brave new world”.

Actually, having GBC revise downward its SHMA numbers may end up incidental. Certainly a lot of the houses we currently think we need will never get built.

The coffee is brewing. Time for some to wake up and sniff.

Responses to Letter: Brexit Means the Council Should Review Housing Numbers

George Potter Reply

June 27, 2016 at 12:59 pm

While Colin Cross undoubtedly has a point, we’re already seeing top Leave campaigners finally coming clean and admitting that they support retaining free movement of people within Europe.

So it seems very likely that the almost 50% of immigration from outside the EU will stay the same while immigration from within the EU will only fall slightly. This is unlikely to have much of an affect on population growth.

Economic uncertainty is likely to be the bigger factor.
Colin Cross Reply

June 27, 2016 at 1:43 pm

Migration is a two way street and whilst in the real world the UK will continue to have little actual control over its immigration numbers, in spite of the Leavers’ wild claims.

However, and most apparent in South East England, we will see very significant numbers of financially related jobs being relocated across the EU. Once this mass emigration starts it will snowball as the overseas property investors, who are currently responsible for the buy to leave phenomenon, will also lose interest in London and the SE of England.

In any case, what are the grounds for George Potter implying that a 50% drop in non-EU immigration is only marginal or saying that EU immigration will only fall a bit?

Is he privy to some private source of information none of us have seen?

Colin Cross is the Lib Dem borough councillor for Lovelace.
Jules Cranwell Reply

June 27, 2016 at 5:03 pm

GBC should seriously consider the probability of mass emigration from the UK, given the current mess it is in.

Those who are mobile enough, and have the skills will seek more stable places to live.

I’m already gone!

After this exodus, who is to say that Guildford will not have a glut of available housing, so why build any more?
Brian Miller Reply

June 27, 2016 at 5:17 pm

This is the time for our council to have a plan B (as the Local Plan has not been finalised) with Brexit, otherwise they’re ‘living in cloud-cuckoo land’.
Lisa Wright Reply

June 28, 2016 at 7:40 am

It might be an idea to put the whole thing on hold as I very much doubt the large housebuilders will be extending their portfolios anytime soon. We might plan to have some more houses but that doesn’t mean they’ll actually build them.
Adrian Atkinson Reply

June 28, 2016 at 10:07 am

So far the council have continued with the flawed Mansbridge/Juneja trajectory inspite of public opposition and flawed thinking. Why do you think Brexit will change that trajectory which the ruling Exec “leadership”, of Guildford Conservatives and the unelected M3LEP are so wedded to?

The current leadership’s attitude is: “You’re wrong, we are right. We are elected, you’re not, we got more votes than you. Our barrister bill (paid for by your taxes) is bigger than your barrister’s bill, so proves I’m right, our development led PR company spins things, tells us what to say, so we must be right. You only say what you think. Yes we lied about the green belt and you’ve just seen all political groups lying about Brexit – it’s what politicians do. It’s my ball and you can’t play, see you in court.”
D Fassom Reply

June 28, 2016 at 1:50 pm

I think we would need to be invaded by Martians before the GBC would consider changing their Local Plan. Even then it would be touch and go. I am sure Cllr. Spooner would argue the Martians have to live somewhere.