Fringe Box



Lib Dems 13 per cent Ahead in Guildford But Many Voters Still Undecided Says Straw Poll

Published on: 1 Jul, 2024
Updated on: 2 Jul, 2024

By Hugh Coakley

Liberal Democrat Zöe Franklin could be heading for an historic result in Guildford on Thursday, July 4, potentially cruising home comfortably on 33 per cent of the vote, 13 per cent ahead against the incumbent Conservative, Angela Richardson.

Polls indicate that Lib Dem Zoe Franklin is heading for victory on Thursday, July 4.

But with less than a week to go before polling stations open, The Dragon poll showed nearly a quarter of voters (23 per cent) were still undecided. Postal votes have already been submitted.

These predictions are based on a limited straw poll of 61 respondents by The Guildford Dragon NEWS carried out in the town centre on Saturday, June 29.

Other national polls, predicting down to constituency level, give Ms Franklin even more of a lead.

You Gov poll says the Lib Dems have a staggering 27 per cent lead in the Guildford constituency. Electoral Calculus give a 98 per cent chance of a Lib Dem victory with 57 per cent of the vote, against 25 per cent for the Conservatives.

The Dragon poll put The Green Party third with 10 per cent, Reform Party on 5 per cent, Labour on 3 per cent, The Peace Party on zero per cent with six per cent saying they would not vote.

Angela Richardson could be struggling to defend the seat she won in 2019.

Our poll said 50 per cent would vote for the same party as they did in 2019 with 64 per cent saying they won’t change their mind in the lead up to July 4.

Protest and tactical voting appears to be having a significant impact on the Guildford constituency. 54 per cent said their vote will be against a party rather than for a party with only 39 per cent say they will vote for a party of their choice.

The majority, 62 per cent, said they were well informed with 38 per cent saying they were average to poorly informed.

25 per cent of those asked said the economy was the most important issue, with the environment second at 15 per cent. Compared to national assessments of the importance of issue, the environment has a higher priority in Guildford and immigration a lower priority locally. Trust and integrity (13 per cent) are considered important in Guildford, NHS (10 per cent), immigration (5 per cent), tax, wanting a change in government, public services and education are all on 3 per cent.

Foreign policy, politicians being crooks, energy, anti-conscription, wellbeing, local issues and personality were mentioned by 2 per cent of the poll respondents.

Guildford has been a solid Conservative seat since the early 1900s with the exception in 2001 when Lib Dem Sue Doughty took the constituency. Anne Milton beat Sue Doughty by 347 votes in 2005 and went on to build the seat up to a Conservative majority of more than 41 per cent.

Guildford General Election result 2019 – Wikipedia

Angela Richardson took over from Anne Milton, who could not be selected having had the whip removed by Boris Johnson in 2019. Mrs Richardson won the Guildford seat by 3,337 votes making it a marginal seat targeted by the Lib Dems.

The list of candidates for the Guildford constituency are as follows: Zöe Franklin (Liberal Democrat), Sarah Gillinson (Labour Party), Hugh John Morris (The Peace Party – Non-violence, Justice, Environment), Sam Peters (Green Party), Angela Richardson (Conservative and Unionist Party), Dennis Saunders (Reform UK).

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Responses to Lib Dems 13 per cent Ahead in Guildford But Many Voters Still Undecided Says Straw Poll

  1. Jim Allen Reply

    July 1, 2024 at 1:47 pm

    Due to boundary changes that many are unaware of, I believe it is neither logical nor feasible to evaluate the situation in the Guildford constituency or any other constituency with such significant boundary changes.

    As for the wider picture.. there is absolutely no way of telling

    Remember Brexit?

  2. Harry Eve Reply

    July 2, 2024 at 1:23 pm

    The progress of the Green Party is encouraging for those who value our Environment and are disgusted with the current planning system and other aspects of governance.It will be no surprise to those of us who took part in the recent Restore Nature Now march in London which attracted up to 100,000 participants and celebrities. It was a peaceful demo, with no shock tactics, and that seems to be the reason why the BBC ignored it. Nevertheless, I hope our politicians in Government and locally, took note that they cannot sideline environmental issues.

  3. Peter Mills Reply

    July 2, 2024 at 2:29 pm

    This is completely flawed reporting based on statistics from a sample size that is no-where close that needed to draw any kind of conclusions that are worthy of being written down. Stating that it is a straw poll of 61 people does not make it OK to publish this.

  4. David Roberts Reply

    July 6, 2024 at 3:31 pm

    The Lib Dems finished 17.5% ahead of the Tories. So it turns out that The Dragon’s 13% prediction was not so wide of the mark after all.

    Editors response We made it clear that it was a small sample, straw poll rather than a prediction and while this poll and others we have conducted have not been precise about percentages they have usually shown correctly who was attracting most support.

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