Flashback: More than 30,000 Homes Needed To Meet Growing West Surrey Population

Published on: 16 Dec, 2024
Updated on: 5 Dec, 2024

Flashback looks at Dragon NEWS stories of a decade ago.

Ten years ago this week a Housing Marketing Assessment report gave controversial housing targets.

Published on The Guildford Dragon NEWS on Dec 20, 2014

With the population of West Surrey estimated to rise to 409,000 by 2031, more than 30,000 homes will need to be built, according to a latest report.

Pressure groups and others concerned with the threat to the green belt and development within existing urban areas will be carefully analysing property consultants GL Hearn’s latest strategic housing market assessment (SHMA) of West Surrey, a report commissioned by Guildford, Waverley and Woking borough councils.

A view taken from The Mount, using a telephoto lens, looking across the north Guildford area with Woking in the distance.

Published December 14, the report estimates that between 1,522 and 2,053 properties need to be built each year in Guildford, Waverley and Woking.

In the report GL Hearn states: “It [the report] considers how many homes might be needed but does not take into account land supply, policy or other constraints to development. It then goes on to look at what mix of housing is needed, considering the need for different sizes of homes (both market and affordable) and the needs of specific groups in the population, including older people.”

It also notes: “The housing market area population is expected to grow by 14.3% between 2011-31 – a population increase of 51,200 persons. Guildford’s population is expected to grow by 17%, Waverley’s by 13% and Woking’s by 12% over this period.”

And adds: “The forecasts considered in the emerging Guildford Employment Land Needs Assessment estimates that employment in the borough will grow by 21,300 jobs between 2012-31. This takes account of the current level of jobs, economic structure and how different industries are expected to perform in the future based on forecasts from Experian.”

Included in its latest analyses, GL Hearn considers that the “key impacts of improving affordability would be to improve younger people’s ability to form a household, reducing the numbers of younger people forced to live with parents or in shared accommodation. The impact of this has been modelled by adjusting household formation rates of those aged 25-34, increasing levels of household formation for this age group over time such that it reaches the 2001 levels (in each authority) by 2031.”

The leader of Guildford Borough Council (GBC), Stephen Mansbridge, said: “The Draft West Surrey SHMA and our work with Woking and Waverley borough councils has helped to provide a clearer picture of the future need for homes. The joint document considers the feedback given on our own Guildford SHMA, which we updated earlier this year. The SHMA does not look at the constraints we face in meeting the housing need.

“There is further work to do as we prepare a new Local Plan for our borough, particularly around flooding and infrastructure. This, together with the new SHMA evidence and other applied constraints, will help us finalise a housing number. We will continue to challenge this figure to achieve the lowest sustainable point possible to pass the Inspectorate’s examination.”

The National Planning Practice Guidance sets out the methodology for producing a SHMA. GBC said: “The approach used by GL Hearn, our consultants, is thoroughly tested and will be again at our Local Plan examination.”

In response to the report, the chairman of the Guildford Greenbelt Group (GGG), Susan Parker, said: “The Guildford number for housing need is too high – it has been increased. When the required constraints are applied, we are likely to find ourselves with the same housing projections and proposals as put forward last summer.

“The council has claimed repeatedly that it will challenge the housing number, but it is campaign groups and the community, not the council, that has challenged and questioned its conclusions at every stage.  The council has merely put development consultants’ reports forward as a justification for the proposed plan.

“It is worth noting that in 2011 the Guildford Conservatives pledged to protect the green belt and countryside as a key element in their election manifesto, which led to their election. That pledge was not honoured. The draft Local Plan, put forward by our local council, broke that promise.

“We have now been told that the Local Plan will be reviewed by the council, and a revised Local Plan will be available after the next election. The housing numbers have increased and the council have not challenged the arguments made, although they have had this report in draft since September. The council chose to publish this report a few days before Christmas perhaps so no one would read it. Why should anyone trust them now?”

GGG adds that it will be studying the new SHMA in detail and will produce comments in due course.

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