Dragon Poll Shows Guildford Tories and Lib Dems Neck and Neck

Published on: 24 Nov, 2019
Updated on: 24 Nov, 2019

By Martin Giles

It’s neck and neck between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems in the race for the Guildford seat in the General Election. Labour and Independent Anne Milton are being relegated to also-rans.

That is the finding of a Guildford Dragon survey yesterday in Guildford High Street and North Street. One hundred respondents answered our questionnaire on voting intentions and the main issues facing the country and Guildford.

Asked who they were likely to vote for on December 12, 36% said Lib Dem and 35% Conservative. The “Not knowns” include those who were not intending to vote, were unsure and did not wish to say.

This graph shows how those questioned intend to vote in the 2019 General election (light grey) compared with how they voted in 2017.

The results showed that the traditional Conservative dominance has disappeared but the Lib Dems had not yet overtaken them.

Expelled Conservative Ms Milton’s position, as a new Independent might be disappointing for her, only five of those questioned said she would get their vote, four of them former Tory voters, but her vote could prove crucial in denying the Conservatives their traditional Guildford victory.

Ms Milton’s warning to PM Boris Johnson about Guildford’s precarious political position could prove correct. His expulsion of her, along with a score of other Tories, for opposing a no-deal Brexit, might cost the Conservatives their normally true-blue Guildford seat.

When it came to naming the main national issue a large majority said it was indeed Brexit but the NHS and climate change also featured. Immigration, law and order and the question of which party had the leader best-qualified to be PM appeared to be less important factors.

The main local issue to be tackled by Guildford’s MP is clearly traffic congestion, followed by housing and overcrowding/green-belt protection.

The problem of building more homes without using green-belt land and causing more motor traffic will remain a difficult issue for the successful candidate to tackle when representing Guildford.

When those questioned were asked if they felt well-informed, the response was predominantly “Yes”. Only 18% said they felt poorly or very poorly informed and 28% said they felt “very well informed”.

Although there was no selection of respondents by the Dragon team on any basis, other than whether they were Guildford voters, the sample was 50-50 male-female and had a fairly even distribution of age groups.

Nominated Candidates for Guildford , General Election 2019

The following is the official list of all candidates standing in Guildford:

Responses to Dragon Poll Shows Guildford Tories and Lib Dems Neck and Neck

Howard Moss Reply

November 24, 2019 at 3:58 pm

A poll of 100 people out of an electorate of about 70,000 is hardly informative.
- Martin Elliott Reply
  
  November 24, 2019 at 4:25 pm
  
  Agreed. Even professional pollsters with carefully selected panels to reflect true demography seem to have an uncertainty of + or – 50%.
  
  A completely specious article not worthy of The Guildford Dragon.
Lisa wright Reply

November 24, 2019 at 5:35 pm

As an undecided, I’m pleased to see my vote will matter.

According to my children’s opinions, I suspect the Labour vote will be higher than 10% on the day if the younger generation go to the polls.
Colin Cross Reply

November 24, 2019 at 11:20 pm

It does appear that Anne Milton maybe yesterday’s candidate based on this, admittedly tiny, poll, albeit that she has been a thoroughly decent MP throughout her tenure.

Angela Richardson seems to resonate as today’s candidate, being so pro-Boris/Brexit but seemingly uncaring on more sensitive environmental and green belt issues. It’s a shame.

I vote in Mole Valley so have no particular axe to grind but it does occur to me that when the Brexit battle has been won or lost we will be in need of tomorrow’s leaders to make the best of our future in the wider world, not yesterday’s or today’s transient hopefuls.

It would, therefore, be my choice, if it were possible, to put Zoe Franklin into our new Parliament as Guildford’s representative for the difficult road that lies ahead for our town and country. Her experience on GBC as a councillor will be valuable in guiding Guildford through the tough times that lie in wait. Now is not the time for inexperienced blood and Zoe is worth backing in what appears to be a two-horse race.

I am writing this as a private individual, not as a R4GV GBC councillor.
- Sally Parrott Reply
  
  November 25, 2019 at 10:26 pm
  
  Zoe Franklin is certainly a former GBC councillor, but perhaps that’s not a good enough reason for electing her as Guildford’s MP?
  
  Anne Rouse, the Labour candidate, has lived in Guildford for almost 30 years. As a former governor at three local schools, she certainly knows a lot about education, and having had her own accountancy business for 25 years, she also understands the problems of local small businesses. She is a superb candidate and is backed by an exciting manifesto which will restore Guildford’s infrastructure and pride in itself.
  
  Remembering both Gyles Brandreth’s One Show visit to Guildford High Street and finding Labour policies popular with the locals, and Guildford Labour’s recent rise in popularity (5.1% of the vote in 2010, 19% in 2017), John Harris of the Guardian may well be correct: “Guildford may well be a four-way marginal”.
John Schluter Reply

November 25, 2019 at 12:21 am

Strange that so many pledged their support for the Tories before their manifesto was published. I am reminded of George Orwell’s words in 1984, “The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Stuart Barnes Reply

November 25, 2019 at 9:18 am

If my maths is/are correct the figures above seem to say that 36 people said that they would vote Liberal, 35 for the genuine Conservative and 5 for the fake Conservative.

That does not appear to be a conclusive poll out of say 70,000 voters, to say the least.
James Walsh Reply

November 25, 2019 at 12:45 pm

Labour’s vote should indeed be higher than 10% because Anne Rouse is a class act and someone who will truly represent the diverse interests of the people of Guildford.

Just saying… 😉

James Walsh is a Labour borough councillor for Stoke
D Bisdee Reply

November 26, 2019 at 12:18 pm

This “poll” is hardly worth reporting. I suggest people take no notice. I write as a former opinion pollster and market researcher. 100 people is far too small a number to get a good cross-section of Guildford voters, and to include only people shopping in central Guildford on one day, makes it a biased sample.
Steve Jones Reply

November 26, 2019 at 12:56 pm

Your interviews with the candidates for Guildford are interesting and informative. Well done for proper impartial coverage.

However, from her interview, the Conservative candidate is not my choice.

Ms Richardson’s support for the Local Plan, building on the green belt and thinking that development at Dunsfold would not produce more traffic on A281 suggests she knows little about our area.

Perhaps not surprising as she has little experience even in local government. She is a parish councillor from Ewhurst village and failed to get elected in the safe Tory seat of Cranleigh East at the May council elections

Hardly well qualified to be Guildford’s MP in comparison with Lib Dem and Labour candidates plus Independent Anne Milton with her 14 years experience of Parliament.