Poll Predicts General Election Lib Dem Wins in Guildford, Godalming & Ash and Woking

Published on: 4 Apr, 2024
Updated on: 5 Apr, 2024

By Martin Giles

New MRP figures, released today from YouGov, project that, if the country were voting in a general election tomorrow, the Conservatives would lose the seats of Guildford, Godalming & Ash and Woking to the Liberal Democrats. All three constituencies overlap with Guildford Borough.

The poll is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed from 7-27 March.

The poll forecasts that the Conservatives’ 2019 majority of 4,000 would be overturned by the Liberal Democrats, and places Labour in third place while Reform UK takes a significant 9 per cent, almost certainly at the expense of the Tories.

Overall Labour would win power and 403 seats nationwide giving them a massive majority of 149 seats.

Obviously buoyed by the poll, the Lib Dems’ prospective Parliamentary candidate, Zöe Franklin, said: “These figures send a clear message to the Conservatives that for Guildford, and for voters across the country, change cannot come soon enough. Every day people tell me they are desperate for their voices to be heard.

Zoe Franklin speaking recently at the Lib Dem Spring Conference.

“I take nothing for granted, and I will continue to work hard to prove to voters in Guildford that I stand ready to fight for them. I remain committed to the Liberal Democrat promise of a fairer deal for everyone.

“With every respect to Labour campaigners and voters, the only way to beat the Conservatives in Guildford is to lend your vote to the Liberal Democrats. We cannot be complacent. We cannot afford to miss this opportunity to achieve the change this country so desperately needs.”

The national picture

This latest poll follows four historic parliamentary by-election wins for the Liberal Democrats over Conservative MPs in recent years, as well as hundreds of gains in local elections across the country, including voters giving the Liberal Democrats control of Guildford Borough Council.

Perhaps surprisingly, the numbers are much closer in Godalming and Ash where the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is expected to defend his seat, while Jonathan Lord, the Conservative MP for Woking, would appear to face an even bigger challenge than Angela Richardson in Guildford.Overall in Surrey, normally a Conservative heartland said to be part of the “blue wall”, five of the 12 Surrey seats (Farnham & Bordon straddles the county boundary with Hampshire) would return Lib Dem MPs while others, such as Surrey Heath and Runnymede, are neck and neck. Spelthorne and Reigate are notable for showing Labour in second place.

Ms Franklin continued: “After fourteen years of this appalling Conservative government, the NHS is on its knees, we struggle to get a GP or NHS dental appointment. Our fuel bills, mortgages, rent, and prices in the shops have soared. And the Conservatives have stood back as privatised water companies pay out billions to shareholders while dumping sewage in our rivers and waterways. This cannot carry on.

“To represent my home constituency in Parliament would be an honour. I stand ready to be the dedicated champion Guildford so badly needs.”

Angela Richardson MP (Con), Guildford Labour, Guildford & Waverley Green Party,  and the Reform UK Party were invited to contribute to a follow-up article.

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