The Borough Council Election – Ward by Ward Analysis Part 2 – Clandon to Onslow

Published on: 15 Apr, 2023
Updated on: 19 Apr, 2023

By Martin Giles

This is the second article in a four-part series.

The result of a Guildford Borough Council election has never been so uncertain and votes are likely to count more than ever before.

See other articles in this series here

After decades of dominance by the Conservative Party, with occasional interludes of Lib Dem or no overall control a new party, the Residents for Guildford & Villages, smashed their way into the duopoly, pushing aside the Tories, to eventually share power with the Lib Dems.

But this was not a match made in heaven and there have been many falling outs which, as time progressed, became more and more public.

The big question now is can the independent parties R4GV and GGG (Guildford Greenbelt Group), with their partial election pact, hold their ground or even increase their presence at the borough council after the election on May 4? R4GV’s failure to review the Local Plan, and its support for controversial town centre developments, might count against it, aggravated by the “Battle for Guildford” video circulating on social media.

And would returning to sole control by the national parties improve things? Would more voters get council policies they would support?

Conservatives are campaigning against a national background of anti-Tory sentiment following “Partygate” and the disastrous Liz Truss premiership. And given their track record locally, will their new town centre “preservation” policy have credibility and attract support or will voters still hold the Local Plan controversy against them?

Nationally the Labour Party are riding high in the polls but will that translate into even a modest increase in the number of seats they win in Guildford borough?

And can the Lib Dems clean up simply by being none of the above even if their planning policy is unclear and their ambition to build 3,000 council houses still unrealistic?

GBC’s new 2023 ward boundaries with the number of seats for each ward shown.

Ward-by-ward analysis:

Clandon & Horsley (three seats)

The corresponding 2019 results but ward boundaries may have changed.

This ward, historically safe and natural Tory territory, has become a centre for anti-Conservative sentiment because of anger over the impact of Conservative planning policy and its local manifestation the Guildford Local Plan. Unpopular development continues in these villages and it is hard to envisage a Tory comeback anytime soon.

So the prospects for Catherine Young an incumbent councillor for this ward, newly recruited from GGG, and, Ruth Brothwell who formerly represented Worplesdon, look good. R4GV will be hoping for a clean sweep and without GGG competition this might be their safest ward.

Candidates

Dawn Bennett – Residents for Guildford and Villages
Ian Douglas Bond – The Conservative Party
Ruth Brothwell – Residents for Guildford and Villages
Stephen James Cullens – The Conservative Party
Toni Hourahane – The Conservative Party
Liam Francis O’Keeffe – Liberal Democrats
David William Roe – Liberal Democrats
Wendy Anne Ross – Liberal Democrats
Dan Symonds – Labour Party
Catherine Anne Young – Residents for Guildford and Villages

Effingham (one seat)

The corresponding 2019 results but ward boundaries may have changed.

This is an old-fashioned Conservative v Lib Dem v Labour contest. Labour will almost certainly be the also-rans. And it can be expected that local concerns over approved building proposals in Effingham will help the Lib Dems retain this single-seat ward especially as local feeling was vociferously represented at GBC by retiring councillor Liz Hogger.

Candidates

Lulu Boder – The Conservative Party
Shek Shahanoor Rahman – Labour Party
Merel Astrid Rehorst-Smith – Liberal Democrats

Merrow (three seats)

The corresponding 2019 results but ward boundaries may have changed.

This might be a fascinating R4GV v Lib Dem battle. The three R4GV candidates will be at the top of the ballot paper which, experienced candidates say, can give a surprising advantage. But can they increase their standing from the 15 seats they won in 2019? They need to win here if so.

R4GV leader and the Mayor of Guildford Dennis Booth are standing here, so plenty at stake.

Independent Graham Ellwood used to represent Merrow as a Tory borough councillor until defeated in 2019 and was a county councillor for Guildford South East until he was disqualified for non-attendance. He’ll probably face an uphill struggle, along with other Independents elsewhere, without party support.

Candidates

Joss Bigmore – Residents for Guildford and Villages
Dennis George William Booth – Residents for Guildford and Villages
Stuart Raymond Zane Brown – Residents for Guildford and Villages
Nathan Cassidy – Labour Party
Yves De Contades – Liberal Democrats
Graham Thomas Ellwood – Independent
David Ian Humphries – Conservative Party
Christopher Howard Jay – Conservative Party
Katie Jane Lotte Lam – Conservative Party
Jo Shaw – Liberal Democrats

Normandy and Pirbright (two seats)

The Pirbright 2019 result.

The Normandy 2019 result.

In normal times this new ward with two seats would be dependably Tory. And so it might remain as planning issues are generally further down the priority list here, so long as the protection of the army-owned Pirbright common, mostly a range danger area, remains making it unavailable for development.

And will Conservative candidate Keith Witham’s recommendation to watch the “Battle for Guildford” video count for him, against or have no effect?

Candidates

David John Bilbé – Conservative Party
Geoff Doven – Residents for Guildford and Villages
Jane Rosemary Hill – Independent
Ken Howard – Liberal Democrats
Gina Redpath – Residents for Guildford and Villages
Simon Schofield – Labour Party
Keith Francis Witham – Conservative Party

Onslow (three seats)

The corresponding 2019 results but ward boundaries may have changed.

Onslow is traditionally Lib Dem/Conservative battle front with the Lib Dems winning all three seats in 2019. It will be surprising if either the Conservatives or R4GV can make inroads but, of course, that will be their aim.

However, the Tories had a seat here until 2019 when Howard Moss, R4GV’s sole candidate in that election, forced Adrain Chandler the Conservative incumbent into 5th place by over 300 votes. If Adrian can retake a seat here it will be a sign his party are on its way back.

Lib Dem Angela Goodwin (formerly Friary & St Nicolas is standing here hoping to replace her retiring husband David who has been a councillor for many years. The other two Lib Dem winners from 2019 Jon Askew and Will Salmon are also standing down while Steven Lee, a winner in Merrow before, is now standing here.

Candidates

Shamsul Alam – Conservative Party
Nick Bragger – Labour Party
Lynsey Marie Brown – Residents for Guildford and Villages
Adrian Stuart Chandler – Conservative Party
Sam Church – Trade Unionist And Socialist Coalition
Adam Goktug Ekinci – Conservative Party
Angela Marie Goodwin – Liberal Democrats
James Heaphy – Residents for Guildford and Villages
James Owen Ashton Jones – Liberal Democrats
Steven Lee – Liberal Democrats
James Albert Josef Lewis – Trade Unionist And Socialist Coalition
Howard Frederick Moss – Residents for Guildford and Villages
Hannah Mary Elizabeth Rich – Labour Party
Vlad Stoiana-Mois – Labour Party

Next: Pilgrims, Send & Lovelace, Shalford and St Nicolas

See other articles in this series here

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