Analysis: It’s Not the Economy, It’s Brexit, Stupid!

Published on: 19 Sep, 2019
Updated on: 21 Sep, 2019

By Martin Giles

The phoney war that gave us the strange return to two-party politics in 2017 is long over. The realignment of British politics is underway and the tremors have reached Guildford, 30 or so road miles from Westminster but, in political miles, much further away.

Gordon Jackson (left) with ther prorogue protestors at the Guildhall. Photo Mandy Millyard

The small aftershock this week that was Cllr Gordon Jackson’s resignation might have surprised us but it shouldn’t have. His presence at the Lib Dem prorogation protest demonstrated just how unhappy he was with the Conservative Party’s position. Other local Tory supporters will share his views but party members support the fallback of no-deal on an alleged ratio of 4-1, if the vote at their AGM is indicative.

There might even be only one or two Leavers within their party’s rump group of eight councillors at Millmead. The precise number is uncertain because, as at family dinner tables, Brexit is “too sensitive to discuss”, according to one insider.

The touchiness is telling. Many of us have strong feelings on Brexit and the strength of where one stands on the issue has overtaken traditional party loyalties. One has only to consider Anne Milton’s party expulsion and Boris Johnson’s opinion that losing Guildford is a price worth paying to realise the impact.

The broad church boundaries of the Conservative and Labour parties are being tested to destruction. And there is probably more blood-letting to come.

Bob Hughes, Guildford Conservative Association chairman and Remain campaigner, hopes Ms Milton, his friend and ally, can soon be readmitted to the fold. Others believe party forgiveness of rebels will take years.

So what can we expect in our normally Tory heartland Guildford politics?

If a general election is called before any Brexit is effected what will be the choice before Guildford voters? In the 2017 general election, 30,000 voted Conservative, a figure boosted by those who believed the 2016 referendum result meant the decision to leave had been made and accepted, so they backed the Tories to see it through.

But the Conservative vote did not increase, probably because many Conservative Remainers switched their allegiance to the Lib Dems who saw their share boosted from 8,354 in 2015 to 13,255 in 2017.

Guildford Labour’s increase from 6,534 to 10,545  is more difficult to explain. Most local Labour supporters will be Remainers but their 2017 manifesto commitment was to see Brexit through.

Their spokesman, Brian Creese, told The Dragon he put it down to having a strong, locally rooted candidate, a popular manifesto on non-Brexit issues, and the fact that Brexit did not play large in that election.

But it will in the next and Labour’s position on Brexit remains confused. The idea put forward by Guildford Church of England School old girl, Emily Thornberry, that they will negotiate a deal which they will then campaign against in a second referendum appears bizarre.

For the Lib Dems life is less complicated. They have remained squarely in favour of Remain. They will be hoping there are still Conservative Remainer votes to vacuum up and perhaps, votes of Labour Remainers, tempted to vote tactically to oust the Conservatives.

Whether their “If we become the government we’ll revoke Article 50” policy encourages or discourages voters is uncertain. Lib Dems probably don’t really expect to have the electoral success necessary to put what some say is an undemocratic policy into practice.

Then there is the Brexit Party. Their new kid on the block here is Joe Domican. If there is no electoral pact between Nigel Farage’s party and the Tories, the Tory vote in Guildford is bound to be split, making a Lib Dem victory even more likely. If there is a pact, Guildford is probably a seat the Brexit Party will forego but such a pact might make it more likely that Conservative soft Brexiteers will jump ship.

And what could happen in Guildford if a second referendum is called before a general election? Depending, to a degree, on the choices on the ballot paper the Leave and Remain campaigns can be expected to reform regardless of party. There is no sign that in Guildford the split in opinion has changed much and there are no polls on which to base any prediction.

Again on the local political scene, the emergence of Residents for Guildford and Villages Party in May was interesting, as was the slight expansion of the Guildford Greenbelt Group, despite the dominance of Brexit at a national level.

Whether the shift will sustain is too early to predict but maybe the general disillusion with traditional parties will mean voters will continue to look elsewhere for their local representatives. That has happened in other councils.

The next test will be the county council elections. Could a party with Guildford in its title do well in a county-wide election? Perhaps there is scope for some sort of Surrey Independent Party Alliance? We still have 18 months to think about that.

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