Lib Dems Ahead in Seven of Surrey’s 12 Seats, According to Poll

Published on: 30 May, 2024
Updated on: 30 May, 2024

Map showing the parliamentary constituencies around Guildford.

By Emily Dalton, local democracy reporter

and Martin Giles

A poll produced for the New Statesman by Britain Elects is showing the Liberal Democrats to be ahead in seven of the 12 Surrey seats, including Guildford.

As well as Guildford, the Lib Dems are shown to be in the lead in Godalming & Ash, Woking, Farnham & Bordon, Dorking & Horley, Esher & Walton, and Epsom and Ewell. The Conservatives remain in front in Surrey Heath by a fraction, as well as Runnymede & Weybridge, Spelthorne, Reigate and East Surrey.

Surrey is traditionally a Conservative stronghold where they make a clean sweep of seats but is now part of the “blue wall” that is being targeted by the Lib Dems.

Boundary changes

Predicting results is being made more complicated by recent Parliamentary constituency boundary changes.

New battlegrounds drawn up means a new electorate and new priorities. Voters looking forward to supporting an existing MP or holding them to account may suddenly find they have been moved to a neighbouring constituency.

The Boundary Commission for England proposed new parliamentary constituencies to reflect population changes and communities since the last commission in 2010. After a boundary review in 2023, new lines have been drawn and will be implemented for the election on July 4.

Some residents in the Guildford area are only just realising that the constituency boundaries they have got used to in recent years have changed.

The Guildford constituency loses an area to the south, which included Shalford, Bramley and Cranleigh, but gains an area to the east that includes the Clandons and Horsleys, Ripley and Effingham.

The changes also mean that South West Surrey constituency will cease to exist and its territory will be divided up.

There will be a new Godalming & Ash constituency, which means Ash will no longer be part of Surrey Heath.

Surrey Heath will take on Pirbright and Normandy wards, formerly part of Woking.

Additionally, a new constituency of Farnham & Bordon has been created, which unusually straddles a county boundary, part of it being in Hampshire.

Guildford Borough will now contain or overlap three constituencies: Guildford, Godalming & Ash and Surrey Heath. According to recent polling all three could now be considered to be Conservatives/Lib Dem marginals.

Guildford ‘s current General Election candidates

Guildford

This election will be a rerun of the main contest between incumbent Conservative Angela Richardson and Lib Dem Zöe Franklin.

The New Statesman and Britain Elects poll shows the Lib Dems to have a huge lead of over 17 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 45.4 per cent with the Conservatives on 27.9 per cent. After the 2019 result in which the Conservative majority was cut by the Lib Dems to just over 3,000 this was always going to be near the top of their target list.

John Morris, the veteran Peace Party candidate, has told the Dragon that he also intends to stand.

Godalming & Ash Candidates as at May 30

Godalming & Ash

Only 45 per cent of Jeremy Hunt’s current constituents in South West Surrey will still be able to vote for him. Alternatively, Godalming and Ash will gain 38,071 new voters from Guildford, Surrey Heath and Mole Valley.

After previously enjoying large margins of the vote, results from the 2019 election showed Hunt with a slim majority of 8,817 votes ahead of his Lib Dem rival, Paul Follows: Hunt received 32,191 votes to Follows’ 23,374.

Over half (58.8 per cent) of the current South West Surrey constituency will go to the new Farnham and Bordon seat, losing 43,300 voters to East Hampshire. Hunt will no longer represent Farnham and Haslemere at the next general election, an area which has been a historic power base for Conservatives.

Polling puts Follows as winning the seat from the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with 40.9 per cent of the vote to Hunt’s 32.8 per cent. The Britain Elects poll forecasts how the country would vote if an election was held today.

See also: Dragon Interview – Paul Follows, Lib Dem Candidate for Godalming & Ash

The Conservatives could see a drop of 20.7 points in support if current polling is accurate. Labour is predicted to increase its voter share by 4.8 per cent and Greens to 3.8 percent. Data suggests that Reform could spring past the Green Party, taking 7.5 per cent of votes

Altogether, the electorate for Godalming and Ash is 71,399 and for Farnham and Borden 72,938.

Surrey Heath Candidates as at May 30. Still awaiting the Conservative nomination.

Surrey Heath

The poll shows the Tories and Lib Dems to be neck and neck, with the Conservatives just .2 of a per cent ahead.

The surprise decision of Michael Gove to stand down means we wait to hear who will stand for the Conservatives here. Despite the narrowest of leads it might be one of Surrey’s safer bets for an aspiring Tory.

Source: https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts