Lib Dems Forecast to Win Biggest Share of Seats, But Will Reform Come Second?

Published on: 7 May, 2026
Updated on: 7 May, 2026

Surrey is to be divided into two unitary authorities.

By Chris Caulfield

Before a vote was cast today (May 7), the Liberal Democrats were projected to win the biggest share of Surrey seats across the two new councils by forecasting website BritainVotesNow, but its forecast is criticised by some for being based on a very small sample.

Today’s election will decide the future of Surrey amid a seismic shake up in how we are governed locally and council services are delivered.

Surrey County Council and its 11 boroughs and districts will be dissolved and replaced with two new councils, East and West Surrey.

Tomorrow morning (May 8), counting will begin to decide who runs the newly formed authorities and the BritianVotesNow prediction of the Lib Dems taking the largest vote share across the two councils but falling short of an overall majority in either will be proven right or wrong.

In West Surrey – which will be made by merging part of the county council with Waverley, Guildford, Woking, Runnymede, Spelthorne and Surrey Heath – the website predicts the Liberal Democrats will win 42 of the 90 seats.

Cllr Paul Follows

Easily the single largest party but there could still be a period of uncertainty as the new groups elect their new leaders – and new alliances. many are tipping Paul Follows, currently the leader of Waverley Borough Council to be the new West Surrey Council leader if the Lib Dems do form the largest political group.

The largest share of the Liberal Democrat’s west Surrey vote is expected to be concentrated in Surrey Heath and Woking as well as strong showings in Guildford and Waverley.

Emerging as the main opposition party with 18 seats, the website is predicting Reform will be popular with voters in Runnymede and Spelthorne. In Guildford, they have been concentrating their campaign in Guildford West and Guildford North.

If the prediction holds true, the Conservatives, stronger in the south of West Surrey, in the villages of Guildford and Waverley, will win only 14 councillors, and be pushed into third place behind Reform.

The site is calling a very close race in Runnymede for the Tories, but if it goes Reform it could see the party kicked out of northern Surrey altogether.

This would be a heavy defeat for the party that has effectively run the county council since its inception.

The Conservatives have traditionally been very successful in Surrey, at one stage controlling every council and returning every single MP.

Making up the rest of the field, Independent candidates are expected to pick up 12 councillors if traditional voting patterns in Farnham and Byfleet continue, while the Greens could break through in West Surrey with four councillors.

East Surrey

The picture is less clear in East Surrey – which will be made up of Elmbridge, Mole Valley, Epsom and Ewell, Reigate and Banstead, and Tandridge as well as part of the old county.

BritainVotes has the Liberal Democrats picking up 28 of the 72 seats on offer – predominantly from Mole Valley and Elmbridge.

Independents and Residents are projected to form the next largest group with 16 if they perform as expected in the areas around Epsom – followed by the Conservatives on 12.

A strong showing around Reigate for the Greens could see them pick up eight councillors while Reform could do well enough in Tandridge to return eight of their own.

What happens after the election?

Once elected, the two new councils are scheduled to hold formal meetings on May 20 and 21 where group leaders will be decided and and necessary coalitions formed.

After that the main focus of business will be the budget setting process.

Neither council will be fully operational for their first year and will instead sit in shadow alongside the outgoing boroughs, districts, and county.

In April 2027, East and West Surrey Councils will formally take over.