R Rate Drops in the South East

Published on: 22 Jan, 2021
Updated on: 25 Jan, 2021

The estimated R Rate for the South East has dropped to between 0.7 and 1.0. This means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 7 and 10 other people.

And the new estimated growth rate of between -6% and -2% means that the number of new infections is shrinking by between 2% and 6% every day.

The new estimates were published just before the prime minister said in his Covid briefing this evening (January 22) that there was some evidence that the new, more infectious variant might also lead to higher rates of mortality. Fortunately, it still appears that the vaccination is effective against all three new variants, that that was first identified in Kent as well as those from South Africa and Brazil.

The GOV.UK website where the R rates are published warns: “The UK estimates of R and growth rate are averages over different epidemiological situations and should be regarded as a guide to the general trend rather than a description of the epidemic state. Given the increasingly localised approach to managing the epidemic, particularly between nations, UK level estimates are less meaningful than previously.

“These estimates represent the transmission of Covid-19 over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms, and needing healthcare.’

And the infection rate in Guildford borough continues to slowly decrease per 100,000 of population. There were 599 new cases over the week (ending January 21) translating to a “rolling rate” of 402. It was 432 for the week ending January 18. In Surrey, where 5,910 new cases were reported the rate has also fallen from 545 (January 18) to 494. (See also Local Covid-19 Stats)

The official advice remains that lockdown restrictions must be strictly observed.