Will Anne Milton Stand as an Independent in a Close-Run General Election?

Published on: 29 Oct, 2019
Updated on: 30 Oct, 2019

Tellers line up before the speaker in the House of Commons to confirm the vote for a general election on December 12. – Image BBC

Time seems to be running out for the Conservative Party to have Anne Milton as their candidate in the General Election on December 12, a date Ms Milton supported in the Commons this evening (October 29).

Ms Milton, who won the Guildford seat back for the Tories from the Lib Dems in 2005 and has since increased her vote to 30,000, securing more than 50% of the popular vote, in the past three elections, was not among 10 of the 21 “rebels” who had the whip returned today by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

The 21 lost the whip after voting for the Benn Act to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

Fellow MPs had believed Ms Milton, a former government minister and deputy chief whip, would be among those the Tories would prefer to bring back inside their tent.

But her refusal to vote for the short timetable for debating the new Withdrawal Act, after the proposed new EU deal, and her abstention last night in a vote on the government’s first proposal for an election on December 12, presumably led the PM and his supporters to feel she should remain excluded.

Guildford’s 2017 general election result. Wikipedia

Whether Ms Milton wanted the Conservative whip returned remains debatable even though she admitted shedding tears when it was withdrawn. Having been a very effective government whip herself, she must have been fully aware of the likely consequences of her actions since.

In any case, sources in the local Conservative membership say the consensus is that a new candidate is required. Whether this candidate would take a stronger Leave stance is, of course, unknown. The selection process will need to start soon possibly this week.

Ms Milton’s friend and ally, Sir Nicholas Soames, among the 10 Tories who had the whip returned, said “she must have the whip returned”. He told the BBC he had been shocked when Mr Johnson had told the Guildford MP, in his presence, that losing Guildford would be a price that might need to be paid to secure Brexit.

Now, will Ms Milton decide to stand as an Independent? Other than retiring from politics (and she has previously told The Dragon she did not intend to), that is her only option.

As an Independent, she would be hoping she has a big enough personal following to challenge candidates from the established parties. Ms Milton’s parliamentary record and her recent stance on Brexit has won respect from across the political spectrum, but would this translate to votes?

There is no doubt a significant number of voters are disillusioned by the political system and all the traditional parties, so an Independent, moderate candidate could be an attractive option, especially if Ms Milton focuses on discontent on the Local Plan and lack of action on environmental issues.

But some may feel she sat on the fence too long on the Local Plan and they would not forgive her quickly.

The front runner Parliamentary candidates for Guildford

If she stands as an Independent the Guildford vote could be split far more evenly than usual. Determined Remainers will be attracted to the Lib Dems, even those who do not normally vote for them, probably including some tactical Labour voters who might also think this the best way of defeating the Conservatives.

Leavers might be torn between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party, if they do stand. They have selected a candidate but by standing they will split the Leave vote and possibly help the Lib Dems. (Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage welcomed news of the election, tweeting that the deadlock had been broken and “Brexit now has a chance to succeed”.)

If Guildford’s votes are fairly evenly spread, the candidates who secures as little as 30% of the poll might have done enough to win.

But there is one thing all political observers agree on. In the present turbulent political climate, no predictions are reliable.

Nonetheless, Lib Dems are likely to be looking at the situation optimistically. They must feel they have a good chance of retaking Guildford.

Zoe Franklin, their Parliamentary candidate, told The Dragon this evening: “This General Election offers the people of Guildford, Cranleigh and our Villages two crucial opportunities. The first to make their voices heard on Brexit. The second to chose a new MP who will put the interests of our community first.

“I am honoured to be standing again and giving local people the chance to chose a progressive, Liberal and pro-European MP who is deeply committed to standing up for all our communities. We are ready.”

And Labour activist Jacob Allen said: “Guildford Labour have been leafletting and canvassing since September in preparation for a snap general election. We’ve been from Worplesden to Cranleigh, spreading our message of progress and hope.

“We look forward to building on the upward trend of Labour’s vote share in Guildford and Cranleigh and giving working people the choice to replace this clueless Conservative administration with a transformative Labour Government.”

Responses to Will Anne Milton Stand as an Independent in a Close-Run General Election?

Jim Allen Reply

October 30, 2019 at 12:28 am

I believe the only way to vote is for the honesty of the person not the party.
Stuart Barnes Reply

October 30, 2019 at 9:06 am

Anne Milton must not stand again. She has let us down, there is no way back.

If Boris and Co have any sense at all they must agree as soon as possible with the local party to adopt a real, genuine Conservative to stand. If they do then I think the Brexit Party will withdraw but if she stands as a Conservative then the Brexit Party will pick up votes from those who want a real Conservative.
- Lisa Wright Reply
  
  October 30, 2019 at 4:50 pm
  
  In Brexit terms, Anne Milton has followed the wishes of the majority of her constituents. That, I believe, is a good thing as I think that’s exactly what an MP should do.
  
  I would like to think we will elect a candidate who genuinely wants to do the best for Guildford, sort out our congestion and pollution issues, preserve our countryside, get funding for social housing, road surfacing, extra trains, more buses, better health care, cheaper business rates etc.
  
  Unfortunately, from what I have seen from those candidates, none of them seems to fit the job.
  
  I hope someone does step forward to run for Guildford who isn’t party politically motivated but that seems a long shot.
- Steve Pownall Reply
  
  October 31, 2019 at 9:29 pm
  
  I’m trying to hear the case for Brexit but I still don’t think it’s been made.
  
  There is no majority for any of the real Brexits that have emerged. Real Brexits are neither Conservative nor good for the country. Brexit’s claimed restoration of sovereignty won’t make us more powerful. Brexit’s trade deals won’t benefit you or me. Brexit won’t reduce immigration (as if that was a good thing) because the rich will still want cheap labour and I’ll still wish there was free health care. Brexit won’t bring extra funds to the NHS.
  
  Beyond the crafty slogans I just don’t see the appeal.
Guy Sutlieff Reply

October 30, 2019 at 12:54 pm

Putting my own views about politics aside, I find Mr Barnes’ comments extremely bizarre.

I don’t really understand how Anne Milton has let Guildford down. She has been an exemplary constituency MP (I think all sides would say that of her) and she has been a minister under various prime ministers.

As far as Brexit is concerned, given that she represents a constituency that voted to Remain, I would have to say she has done her best in what must be very difficult circumstances.
John Murphy Reply

October 30, 2019 at 1:35 pm

Apart from ignoring me when I once spoke to her in the High Street her lack of loyalty to the Conservative Party is indicative of a non-team player.
Josh Kaplan Reply

October 30, 2019 at 4:46 pm

I really hope that Anne Milton chooses to run again and I’ll be voting for her if she does. I think we need more non-university educated representatives in parliament and she’s done her best to represent the people of Guildford faithfully.

Guildford voted 56% remain and this has been mirrored in her cautious approach and reluctance to support a no-deal.

If Ms Milton chooses to retire, I think she can be proud of the work she’s done for our town.
Dave Smith Reply

October 30, 2019 at 4:54 pm

If Anne Milton stands as an Independent she will definitely get my (usually Conservative) vote. She is one of the very few MPs who came through the “expenses scandal” completely clean and has always acted in the interests of the local area.
Adam Aaronson Reply

October 30, 2019 at 9:16 pm

It really is about time that the Conservative and Unionist Party updated itself with a more fitting name. Perhaps the “Conservative and Misogynist Party” would be more suitable, now that Boris Johnson and his bullies have effectively purged it of some outstanding women, including Anne Milton.

I don’t always agree with Anne Milton, nor Anna Soubry, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan, Heidi Allen, Antoinette Sandbach, Sarah Wollaston, Justine Greening, Claire Perry, Caroline Spelman and others, but I have no doubt that they have made an extremely valuable contribution to our political discourse and it is a tragedy that many of them, and others, feel unwilling to continue on account of the current toxic political climate.

I would trust any of them before I trusted Boris Johnson.
- J Dickinson Reply
  
  October 31, 2019 at 3:40 pm
  
  Well said, Adam Aaronson. My thoughts exactly.
  
  If these changes are a true representation of the face of Conservative politics, it can’t be a surprise that its politicians are abandoning their former party at speed. The Brexit party’s message has always been emphatically rejected here and will be again so this is an election that the prudent will sit out.
  
  Let those silly schoolboys charge over the cliff if they want to; their foolishness won’t be forgotten and they’ll just be making more room for you in years to come.
Robert Drummond Reply

October 30, 2019 at 10:39 pm

I was a Remainer but no longer. I am a democrat who believes that the MPs who have attempted, and so far succeeded, to deny the will of the people should be rejected, whatever their party, especially if they voted for the referendum and said that they would support the result.

As for the arguments for holding another referendum that would be a travesty. The SNP is another group whose policy is, “If you don’t like the result have another.” That is the behaviour of dictators. We may be wrong in Leaving but we would at least be defending democracy. Which is more important?
- Mike Jordan Reply
  
  October 31, 2019 at 8:13 am
  
  I too am a democrat, but cannot accept the argument that a second referendum is denying the will of the people. The Brexit on offer is very different from the one promised by Vote Leave and Leave.eu.
  
  Far from being the opportunity they portrayed, Brexit will be extremely damaging to our economy, our standing in the world and the integrity of the United Kingdom.
  
  Anne Milton has been an exemplary MP representing a Remain-voting constituency and always voted in a considered and principled way, but hardcore Remainers like me really have no alternative but vote Lib Dem. The exodus of moderate Conservatives from the party has changed the face of the party of which I used to be a paying member.
Kevin Dewey Reply

October 31, 2019 at 7:04 am

We need to move on now. The business community is in turmoil awaiting a clear decision. I was a Remainer but we had a referendum and my side lost. Game over, why all this dither?

I am not a Johnson fan but at least he is now moving this process forward and it looks like the Conservative Party will have some casualties, including our excellent constituency MP, Anne Milton. Very sad but the country needs a firm direction in line with the people’s wishes and she has frustrated that process.

I hope she will step down and enjoy a hard-earned retirement and not split the Conservative vote allowing the weak and washy Lib Dems back in again.
Julian Cranwell Reply

October 31, 2019 at 7:15 am

For many like me, who believe the Local Plan is an existential threat to Guildford as we know it, Anne Milton has shown that she is not up to the job. She has taken no position on this most critical matter, and she won’t get my vote as either an independent or Tory.
- Paul Spooner Reply
  
  October 31, 2019 at 1:52 pm
  
  That is certainly true for Mr Cranwell as he is not a Guildford constituency voter.
  
  Paul Spooner is a Conservative borough councillor for Ash South & Tongham
David Pillinger Reply

October 31, 2019 at 5:23 pm

Anne Milton has acted intelligently and democratically and should be applauded and supported whatever her decision is in the upcoming election.

She has been a great constituency MP and has not pandered to the infiltration of her party by the old fashioned and inwardly-looking nationalist brigade. Hats off to Anne.
David Roberts Reply

October 31, 2019 at 6:51 pm

If the Lib Dems can’t win Guildford in this election, they can’t win anywhere. Anne Milton would be wasting her time standing under any party label.
Eric Worpe Reply

November 2, 2019 at 1:03 am

How can not holding a second referendum “defend democracy”? Many are now better informed about the ramifications of leaving the EU and some of the claimed benefits of leaving the EU have been shown to be disingenuous.

In Switzerland a second referendum was held due to false claims having been made.

The precedent of a second run if false claims are found to have been made, may encourage the truth in the future.
- M Page Reply
  
  November 3, 2019 at 8:17 am
  
  To what second referendum (and when) held in Switzerland do you refer?
  - Martin Elliott Reply
    
    November 3, 2019 at 9:11 pm
    
    Does M Page realise that Switzerland has regular referendums as part of their constitution; on average more than 10 a year?
    The way their referendums are held, the rules, and what subjects are appropriate, are well known, or were until recently.
    
    That is completely different from the UK Parliamentary Democracy where a referendum is a special event requiring specific Acts and regulations.
    - John Perkins Reply
      
      November 4, 2019 at 11:45 am
      
      I fail to see how that answers the question presented.
Sue Hackman Reply

November 4, 2019 at 1:19 pm

I think perhaps the Conservative Party did itself no favours by denying redundancy pay to MPs who were stood down because they disagreed with the Boris blunderbuss approach to Brexit. It’s a right all of us can expect at work.
John Perkins Reply

November 5, 2019 at 8:55 am

Nobody ever offered me redundancy pay when I quit a job.
John Lomas Reply

November 5, 2019 at 4:44 pm

MPs are not employed by their party. They are paid by the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) as officeholders, on a fixed-term basis (until the next election).