YouGov Poll Suggests Hunt Could Lose Godalming and Ash to the Lib Dems

Published on: 4 Oct, 2025
Updated on: 8 Oct, 2025

By Chris Caulfield

local democracy reporting service

Three Surrey Conservative MPs, including Sir Jeremy Hunt, would lose their seats if a General Election was called today, according to a YouGov poll.

Sir Jeremy Hunt, MP

The poll suggests that Sir Jeremy, MP for Godalming and Ash, would be beaten by the Lib Dems.

The other two Conservatives would be Lincoln Jopp, who would lose Spelthorne to Reform UK, and Greg Stafford, who would lose Farnham and Bordon to the Lib Dems.

If this were to happen, Surrey would have its first Reform MP.

The YouGov survey of 13,000 people’s voting intentions suggests that nationally the UK is headed for a hung parliament, with Reform UK emerging as the largest party.

If the voting patterns were to hold true until the next election, Guildford would stay Liberal Democrat.

Other Surrey constituencies that would stay Lib Dem would be Surrey Heath, Dorking and Horley, Woking, Esher and Walton and Epsom and Ewell.

The survey suggests the Conservatives would hold East Surrey, Reigate, Runnymede and Weybridge.

Nationally YouGov’s seat-by-seat analysis indicates Reform UK would secure 311 seats in the Commons, short of the 326 required to demand a majority but far and away the largest party  – and 306 MPs more than it currently has.

The poll has Labour dropping from its 411 landslide victory in 2024 to 144 MPs, with the Lib Dems on 78 and the Conservatives with a slip to 45 seats.

But YouGov concedes that its seat projections come with uncertainty and that volatility is now the norm in British electoral politics.

They say Reform UK would win at least 82 seats by less than five percentage points and that there was a possibility it could lose them all, leaving the party well short of a parliamentary majority, rather than within touching distance.

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