By Martin Giles

The by-election called following resignation of Fiona Davidson, the former R4GV county councillor for Guildford South East, is the first opportunity to test the political temperature in Guildford since the controversial cancellation of the county council election in May.

See: Guildford By-election Date Announced

Other Surrey by-elections indicate that overall the Lib Dems have replaced the Conservatives as the dominant party but Reform is emerging as a true competitor in some areas of Surrey, occasionally winning and often securing second place.

See: Lib Dems Easily Hold Three Council Seats in Surrey By-elections

But Guildford SE is probably not a SCC division that will be the most fruitful for Reform, nonetheless it will be interesting to see how much support they attract with their local candidate who appeared to be in the starting blocks, ready, as soon as the by-election was announced.

Unless there is an atypical bout of voter forgiveness towards the Conservatives the Lib Dems might be in pole position (pun intended). But what will happen to the Residents for Guildford and Villages’ vote?

The Guildford South East Election Result in 2021

Fiona Davidson was a hard-working councillor and there still seems to be much disillusion with major parties of which their candidate could take advantage.

See: Sudden Resignation of Guildford County Councillor

Additionally, and as always, the perceived merit of the various candidates can play a major part.

As if all that was not interesting enough for political observers, the Guildford SE result could be the one that tilts the balance at Surrey County Council, making it one with no overall control and the Conservatives a minority administration.

Following two by-elections in August (see results below) and another resignation, the situation at Surrey County Council, is: 40 Conservative, 17 Liberal Democrat, 15 Residents’ Association/Independent, 2 Labour, 2 Green, 2 Reform UK, 1 non-aligned independent and 2 vacancies. There are 81 county councillors in total. In sum, 40 Conservative, 39 Opposition and 2 vacancies.

So the Tories need to win at least one of the two scheduled by-elections (the other is in Camberley) to maintain control.  Whether it will have a significant impact on council business if they fail, we would have to wait and see. All opposition parties would have to act in unusual unison for them to really use the power of their single vote overall majority.

National issues and the standings of the national parties usually have a significant influence on local politics, unless an unusually hot local issue comes to the fore. Is there one? Perhaps planning and housing developments and the commensurate loss of green belt, but which party would benefit from that? None of them have track records likely to impress on that score.

Politico Poll of Polls, September 1 2025. It shows national levels of party support currently as: Reform on 31 per cent, Labour on 20 per cent, Conservatives on 17 per cent, Lib Dems on 14 per cent and Greens on 9 per cent.

But national standings, perhaps unsurprisingly, were not consistently reflected in the two recent Surrey by-election results, although the continuing support for the Lib Dems and the emergence of Reform in those and other recent results is apparent.

Addlestone by-election result Aug 2025

Hinchley Wood by- election result August 2025

We asked R4GV, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, Labour, the Green Party and Reform what their party’s view was on the following:

1. What do you think will be the most important issue that determines voter choice in the Guildford SE by-election?

2. How much do you think national issues will play a part?

3. Can you confirm your party will be standing a candidate in the by-election?

4. Do you think your party, if standing, has a realistic chance of winning the by-election?

5. How significant would the Conservatives losing overall control by a single vote be?

There was no response from R4GV other than they are in the process of selecting a candidate.

Guildford Conservatives chair, Thom Van Every said: “The most important issue for voters to consider at this by-election is whether they want the Liberal Democrats to have the chance to lead Surrey down the same disastrous road as Guildford Borough Council under their leadership.

“Surpluses have turned into deficits with £millions wasted on overspends and financial disasters that have hit national headlines, while residents suffer from cost-cutting and shoddy service.

“As in every election, national issues will play a significant part in determining how some will vote, although it’s difficult to see what relevance national politics have on local issues. The only realistic choice for voters in Guildford is Conservative candidate and Guildford South East resident, Alex Fiuza, who will work hard for residents, or a Lib Dem candidate happy to prop up a disastrous Labour Government.

“Some believe that party politics have no place in local government, but the fact is that without party politics in local government, decisions aren’t made, and nothing gets done.

“If the Conservatives lose overall control of Surrey County Council, whilst it would be disappointing for us in Guildford, it wouldn’t hamper their ability to continue running the council effectively as a minority administration.”

A spokesperson for the Lib Dems responded:

1. Surrey County Council’s finances and services are in a desperate mess and need fixing. For example, we need better support for our vulnerable people and schools while sorting out the massive debt the conservatives continue to add to.

2. This is a local by-election to elect the best candidate to effectively scrutinise and hold the Conservative leadership of Surrey County Council to account.

3. The Liberal Democrats are currently in the process of selecting our candidate and I have no doubt that whoever takes on this role will be the strong and active voice we need and deserve in our division.

4. We have seen Liberal Democrat colleagues winning by elections for Surrey County Council seats again and again in the last few months. Residents recognise we are the only viable alternative to the Conservatives and we are trusted to hold them to account.

5. The Conservative loss of their majority on Surrey County Council is a clear signal they no longer represent the voice of the residents. They have to understand that they should listen and hear what the people of Surrey are telling them.

Graham Drage, chair of Reform Guildford said:

1. The most important issue will be trust in local government. Residents are weary of waste, poor planning and policies imposed without consent. Net Zero and its local impacts — anti-car schemes, “greenways”, inflated parking charges — symbolise that disconnect.

2. National issues inevitably shape local politics now. Surrey County Council has signed up to binding Net Zero commitments, and the coming unitary authority reforms will cover transport, housing, climate and public safety. These are national agendas being forced through at the local level, so residents cannot ignore them, with ever-increasing council tax bills.

3. Reform-UK will be standing a candidate: Dale Layman, a Guildford resident of 30+ years with a successful career in pharmaceutical sales management. Dale is competent, rooted in the community and determined to stand up for residents.

4. Reform-UK is the fastest-growing party nationally, and recent results show clear momentum. Dale will give voters a serious alternative to business-as-usual politics.

5. The Conservatives losing overall control would highlight just how fragile their grip has become. But more importantly, it would give residents the chance to demand genuine accountability and a fresh start in Guildford SE.

We received no response from Guildford Labour or The Green Party.